If coastal condo prices really rose almost 35% in a year, why did the same condos take longer to sell?
That question sits inside the Baldwin REALTORS September 2026 housing report, which Gulf Coast Media republished on October 16. In September 2026 the "Coastal Condos" segment showed an average sales price of $829,255, up 34.73% from September 2025, with 94 sales averaging 151 days on market. "Coastal Homes" averaged $972,112, up 19.59%, across 81 sales that averaged 108 days on market. Put those beside a listing price at Waterways and it can feel like the market is moving away from you.
Each of those figures is a correct average of the sales that closed. The catch is what that average measures. A monthly coastal average built from fewer than a hundred sales mostly reflects which properties closed that month. It says much less about what any one home is worth. And in 2026 the system producing those numbers was replaced partway through the year. For anyone weighing a home in Gulf Shores, the September jump says almost nothing about whether to hurry.
One Month Earlier, the Same Report Pointed Down
Begin with the summer reports from the same source. For June through September 2026, here is how the two coastal segments compared with the same month of 2025:
| Month, 2026 | Coastal Homes sold | Coastal Homes avg. price | YoY change | Coastal Condos sold | Coastal Condos avg. price | YoY change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 133 | $826,072 | +6.87% | 118 | $664,806 | −9.19% |
| July | 93 | $945,196 | +27.20% | 84 | $713,389 | −10.58% |
| August | 78 | $910,922 | −1.48% | 81 | $697,805 | −7.17% |
| September | 81 | $972,112 | +19.59% | 94 | $829,255 | +34.73% |
Coastal condos were behind the prior year for three straight months, and then in one report they jumped to the biggest gain in the table. Coastal homes went up modestly, then up sharply, then slightly down, then sharply up again. Condo values did not swing 45 points in a single month. The thing that changed each month was the group of properties that happened to close.
The wider Resort Area numbers follow the same pattern. That area covers ZIP codes 36511, 36542, 36547 and 36561, which includes Gulf Shores. In the August 2026 report, the Resort Area average fell to $776,553 from $829,364 a year earlier, a drop of about 6%. A month later, the September average was $868,897, up from $720,726, a gain of about 21%. If you had read only one of those two reports, you would have reached the opposite conclusion from someone who read the other.
Why an Average of 81 Sales Moves So Easily
An average gives every sale equal weight, so one large sale can pull the whole number. Here is an illustration using September's figures. In a month of 81 coastal home sales averaging $972,112, adding a single $3 million closing would lift the average by roughly $25,000 even if no other home changed in value. The reverse works the same way. A month with fewer entry-level condo closings pushes the condo average up, even though no existing condo gained a dollar.
The reports carry signs that this is what happened in September. In the Resort Area, closed sales fell to 173 from 187 a year earlier, and total sales volume rose to $150,319,186 from $134,775,779. Fewer sales bringing in more money means the sales skewed toward higher-priced properties. Average days on market went up at the same time, to 131 from 122. When buyers are competing hard enough to push prices up 20%, homes usually don't sit longer. A change in which homes closed fits the numbers better.
The Alabama Center for Real Estate flags this risk in its own reports. In its July 2026 Baldwin County condo report, ACRE wrote that "the differing sample size (number of residential sales of comparative months) can contribute to statistical volatility, including pricing." That caveat comes from the people who build the statistics.
Baldwin REALTORS does not say what drove September's coastal averages, and no local report has attributed the jump to a specific development or group of closings. A composition effect is the explanation the numbers point toward. It is not something anyone has documented.
The Measuring System Changed Partway Through
The second reason to read 2026 comparisons carefully sits in the footnotes of every summer report. Starting with June, Baldwin REALTORS noted that its market areas "are now based on objective geographic boundaries rather than legacy MLS areas." In July and August the note added that "Baldwin MLS's transition to a new MLS platform may result in variations when comparing current statistics to previously published reports," and said data collection was still "being refined within the new MLS system."
According to the Baldwin MLS conversion FAQ, the full cutover happened on August 6, 2026. A September 22 press release announced the move to Perchwell was complete. So every year-over-year comparison this fall sets a month from the new system with new boundaries against a month recorded under the old setup. The source itself says that can produce variations. One clear example: the June Coastal Homes days on market is listed as 59 on the Baldwin REALTORS page and as 86 in Gulf Coast Media's republished version of the same report.
The Median Tells a Calmer Story
A median is the price of the sale in the middle of the list, so a few very expensive closings barely affect it. When the median and the average move in different directions, the high end of the market is moving differently from the typical sale.
That happened countywide this spring. ACRE's Baldwin County Q2 2026 residential report put the average sales price at $527,705, up 2.6% from Q2 2025. The median was $356,145, down 1.1%. The same quarter can be described as prices rising or prices slipping, depending on which measure you use.
The condo figures for July 2026 show how much the method matters. ACRE reported a Baldwin County condo median of $571,500, down 25.8% from a year earlier, based on 96 closed sales. For the same month, the Baldwin REALTORS Coastal Condos average was down 10.58% on 84 sales. The two use different geography, different sale counts and a different statistic. They agree on the direction and disagree by more than 15 points on how far.
There is no median yet to check September against. As of late October, ACRE's most recent Baldwin County residential and condo monthly reports covered July, and its latest quarterly reports covered Q2. When the later ACRE reports come out, they will show whether the September jump appears in the middle of the market or only in the averages.
What Actually Prices a Home at Waterways
If a county average can't tell you what a Waterways home is worth, comparable sales inside and right around the community can. The factors that set value here are the ones a countywide average blends away. Does a deeded boat slip convey with the home? Does the lot sit on the canal or on the interior? Is the home new construction or a resale with a few seasons behind it? A coastal average mixes beachfront condos, Orange Beach towers and canal homes into a single figure.
When you're comparing a Waterways listing with the market, these requests will tell you more than any monthly headline:
- Closed sales, not averages. Ask for the individual recent closings most similar to the home, with sale price, closing date and days on market for each.
- Like-for-like features. Line up slip conveyance, lot position and build year before comparing prices.
- The list-to-sale path. Look at original list price, any reductions and final price, because days on market and reductions show negotiating room that averages hide.
- A date check. If a comparison crosses the August 6, 2026 MLS cutover, confirm that both sales are being measured the same way.
A Few Questions Buyers Ask
Does September's report mean Gulf Shores prices are rising quickly? It shows that the homes and condos that closed in the Resort Area in September 2026 sold for more on average than the ones that closed in September 2025. The months before it point in different directions, and the August Resort Area average was down from a year earlier.
Should I wait for the October report? Next month's report will also rest on a small sample and the same MLS transition caveat. A run of several months, along with medians as they're published, gives a steadier picture than any single release.
Which number comes closest to a home's real market value? Recent closed sales of truly similar properties do, and at Waterways that means matching on the slip, the lot and the age of the home.
If you'd like to see the closed sales behind a Waterways home you're considering, ask us. We pull the individual comparables, slip details and price history so you're not working from a county average. Waterways of the Gulf Shore and the Scarbrough Team will walk you through the numbers. Schedule a Consultation.
